If you spend any time reading TV news in the British tabloid press, you will know that there is so much speculation swirling around Doctor Who, it’s like a meteor shower has engulfed the Tardis.

Rupert Murdoch-owned The Sun newspaper sparked the latest flurry of rumors, reporting that Ncuti Gatwa had been “exterminated” from the BBC series amid a ratings “nosedive.” The BBC said it was “pure fiction” that Gatwa had been fired.

The Sun‘s front-page story also gives credence to speculation that Doctor Who will be “rested” after Season 15 has finished screening on the BBC and Disney+.

The BBC, along with producers at Bad Wolf and BBC Studios, have long veiled Doctor Who in secrecy, meaning that speculative reporting can quickly take root.

So what can we say with certainty about the destiny of the Time Lord?

Firstly, the show’s UK ratings have dropped considerably. Detractors have pinned this on so-called “woke” storylines, though it is not clear if this is the only reason people are switching off.

Deadline has analyzed official seven-day viewing figures for the first half of Season 15, and it does not make easy reading for those involved in Doctor Who.

The first four episodes have averaged 3.1M viewers, which was 800,000 viewers down from last year’s season, which was Gatwa’s first as the Doctor.

Compare the first half of Season 15 to Jodie Whittaker’s last outing as the Doctor, and things get uglier. Season 13 was watched by 5M people over its first four episodes in 2021, two million more viewers than the show is currently managing.

Deadline has used viewing figures from Barb, the UK’s official ratings body. They include on-demand and streaming viewing on televisions, but are not the full picture.

Broadcasters and streamers prefer to use 28-day figures, which provide a more conclusive picture. Nonetheless, seven-day viewing is usually directional and the pattern of decline will likely be reflected in Doctor Who’s final ratings.

The second important thing to say about the speculation around Doctor Who is that the drama’s key figures — including Gatwa himself — have done little to dispel the sense of unease.

On Friday, the BBC repeated the line it has held for many months: no decisions will be made about a renewal until Season 15 has finished screening.

In a small development today, the BBC was prepared to say that Gatwa had not been fired from the show, but refused to deny that he had quit. Gatwa’s rep has been contacted for comment.

Meanwhile, Disney+ has also not commented on whether it intends to remain a co-production partner on Doctor Who outside of the UK.

As for showrunner Russell T Davies, he has actively blown wind in the sails of reporting about Doctor Who being rested beyond its current season.

Speaking to BBC Newsround last month, Davies said that Doctor Who is like Robin Hood, meaning “there might be a pause” in the story, but “no good idea ever dies.”

At the same time, Davies has also said that scripts have been written for Season 16. “Three of them [are] sitting there, three different writers. One script [is] already on draft six,” he told Dr Who Magazine.

Furthermore, The Daily Mirror’s Doctor Who authority Nicola Methven has reported that stories for two seasons are planned out, even if there is a pause.

A BBC spokesperson said: “As we have previously stated, the decision on Season [16] will be made after Season [15] airs and any other claims are just pure speculation. The deal with Disney+ was for 26 episodes – and we still have an entire spin-off, The War Between the Land and the Sea, to air. And as for the rest, we never comment on the Doctor and future storylines.”

It’s going to take time for the space dust to settle around Doctor Who’s future.